Texas Arlington

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	119.0
Current RPI:	119
Expected SOS:	141
Current SOS:	141
Current Record:	19-13
Expected Record:	19-13
Current Conf Record:	13-8
Expected Conf Record:	13-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-1
Current OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	152
Expected OOC SOS:	200

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-13	119.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Arlington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	A	60-62	W	100%
11-16	Oklahoma (39.0)	B12	H	59-63	L	0%
11-24	Samford (291.0)	SC	A	58-65	W	100%
11-28	North Texas (247.0)	SB	A	59-72	W	100%
12-1	Texas (116.0)	B12	A	70-54	L	0%
12-3	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	A	51-60	W	100%
12-13	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	H	81-47	W	100%
12-19	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	A	69-44	L	0%
12-29	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	H	68-47	W	100%
12-31	Denver (64.0)	WAC	H	35-50	L	0%
1-2	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	H	46-64	L	0%
1-5	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	H	52-55	L	0%
1-10	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	A	67-75	W	100%
1-12	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	A	74-91	W	100%
1-17	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	H	44-61	L	0%
1-19	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	H	64-77	L	0%
1-24	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	68-74	W	100%
1-26	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	A	47-66	W	100%
2-2	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	A	64-51	L	0%
2-7	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	H	75-50	W	100%
2-9	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	H	68-63	W	100%
2-14	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	A	68-71	W	100%
2-16	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	A	63-65	W	100%
2-20	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	H	63-48	W	100%
2-23	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	70-77	L	0%
2-28	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	H	81-74	W	100%
3-2	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	H	61-46	W	100%
3-7	Denver (64.0)	WAC	A	84-55	L	0%
3-9	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	A	69-66	L	0%
3-14	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	N	83-78	W	100%
3-15	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	N	69-53	W	100%
3-16	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	N	64-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Arlington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas Arlington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas Arlington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas Arlington	WAC	26.64	26.64	59.41	59.41	5.01	5.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	5.72	5.72	34.48	34.48	-1.78	-1.78
New Mexico St.	WAC	5.72	5.72	70.00	70.00	2.29	2.29
Utah St.	WAC	5.60	5.60	74.07	74.07	2.70	2.70
Texas St.	WAC	4.36	4.36	35.48	35.48	-1.27	-1.27
Seattle	WAC	4.19	4.19	22.22	22.22	-2.33	-2.33
Idaho	WAC	4.19	4.19	37.04	37.04	-1.09	-1.09
Louisiana Tech	WAC	4.17	4.17	79.31	79.31	2.44	2.44
Denver	WAC	4.14	4.14	67.86	67.86	1.48	1.48
San Jose St.	WAC	4.08	4.08	30.77	30.77	-1.57	-1.57
Texas Pan American	GWC	3.26	3.26	46.15	46.15	-0.25	-0.25
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	1.82	1.82	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
Texas	B12	1.71	1.71	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	1.67	1.67	40.74	40.74	-0.31	-0.31
Boise St.	MWC	1.67	1.67	64.29	64.29	0.48	0.48
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.66	1.66	74.19	74.19	0.80	0.80
Oklahoma	B12	1.66	1.66	63.33	63.33	0.44	0.44
North Texas	SB	1.56	1.56	37.93	37.93	-0.38	-0.38
Samford	SC	1.56	1.56	33.33	33.33	-0.52	-0.52
UC Irvine	BW	1.56	1.56	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Utah Valley	GWC	0.33	0.33	35.71	35.71	-0.10	-0.10
New Orleans	ind	0.31	0.31	18.18	18.18	-0.19	-0.19
UC Davis	BW	0.26	0.26	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.25	0.25	25.00	25.00	-0.13	-0.13
New Mexico	MWC	0.25	0.25	85.29	85.29	0.18	0.18
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.25	0.25	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.23	0.23	17.86	17.86	-0.15	-0.15
Kansas	B12	0.20	0.20	85.29	85.29	0.14	0.14
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.20	0.20	71.88	71.88	0.09	0.09
Kansas St.	B12	0.20	0.20	78.79	78.79	0.11	0.11
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.20	0.20	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.18	0.18	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
West Virginia	B12	0.17	0.17	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.16	0.16	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Brigham Young	WCC	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Tech	B12	0.15	0.15	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	17.24	17.24	-0.09	-0.09
Lamar	Slnd	0.13	0.13	9.68	9.68	-0.10	-0.10
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.13	0.13	14.81	14.81	-0.09	-0.09
Oregon St.	P12	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.10	0.10	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Portland	WCC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Nevada	MWC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	70.37	70.37	0.03	0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Long Beach St.	BW	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.04	0.04
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.02	0.02	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01